{"id":2482,"date":"2025-11-19T23:07:52","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T23:07:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rayanazhari.co.uk\/?p=2482"},"modified":"2025-12-11T16:03:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T16:03:14","slug":"the-hidden-flaw-in-the-worlds-biggest-corporate-climate-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rayanazhari.co.uk\/ar\/the-hidden-flaw-in-the-worlds-biggest-corporate-climate-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hidden Flaw in the World\u2019s Biggest Corporate Climate Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2482\" class=\"elementor elementor-2482\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3028c69 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3028c69\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9bc8c07 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9bc8c07\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1>Over 10,000 companies have signed up for Science-Based Targets, marking a huge win for climate action. But a deep-seated flaw in the rules could be setting the entire system up to fail<\/h1><p>If you follow the world of corporate climate action, you\u2019ve heard of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sciencebasedtargets.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi)<\/a>. In just a few years, it\u2019s evolved from a niche acronym to the undisputed global gold standard for any company that wants to be taken seriously on emissions.<\/p><p>The sheer scale is staggering. As of mid-2025, nearly 11,000 companies, representing over 40% of global market capitalisation, have committed to the framework. The fastest growth is happening right now.<\/p><p>On the surface, this looks like an unqualified victory. We\u2019re finally moving from vague \u201cgreen\u201d promises to a world of rigorous, third-party-verified corporate accountability.<\/p><p>But as with any system that experiences explosive growth, we have to ask; Is it all it\u2019s cracked up to be?<\/p><p>Beneath the celebratory headlines, a fierce debate is raging within the SBTi. It\u2019s a fight that gets to the very heart of climate science, corporate responsibility, and technological optimism. And how it gets resolved will determine whether this entire movement is a powerful engine for change or just a very sophisticated, very expensive way to look busy.<\/p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><div class=\"image2-inset can-restack\"><p><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 1456w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"100vw\" \/><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg\" sizes=\"100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M8Gr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg 1456w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1024,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:195015,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/onethoughtleadstoanother.substack.com\/i\/178711165?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50e907a3-3c40-4d1f-b3e2-a9f3980fc789_1024x1024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/picture><\/p><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset\">\u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/figure><\/div><h2>From Niche Framework to Strategic Need<\/h2><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA\"><div id=\"\u00a7from-niche-framework-to-strategic-need\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Let\u2019s quickly set the table. The SBTi was formed in 2014 by a group of non-profits (like the\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldwildlife.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">World Wildlife Fund<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;\" href=\"https:\/\/unglobalcompact.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">UN Global Compact<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">) to give companies a clear \u201cpathway\u201d to reduce emissions in line with the\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;\" href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">Paris Agreement<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">. In short, it\u2019s a stamp of approval that says a company\u2019s climate goals are \u201caligned with science.\u201d<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><p>For years, this was a compliance exercise. The sustainability team would work to get the badge, and the company would put it in its annual report.<\/p><p>Not anymore.<\/p><p>Today, having an SBTi-approved target is a strategic imperative. Investors use it as a filter for climate risk. Customers (especially other big companies) are making it a requirement for their suppliers. And in a tight labour market, talented people want to work for companies that aren\u2019t actively setting the world on fire.<\/p><p>This shift has made SBTi incredibly powerful. It\u2019s no longer just verifying action; it\u2019s actively driving it. Which is why the internal mechanics of its rulebook are so critically important.<\/p><h2>The Great Carbon Removal Debate<\/h2><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA\"><div id=\"\u00a7the-great-carbon-removal-debate\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The current firestorm is over something called the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0, which is due in 2026. The central conflict? What to do about\u00a0<\/span><strong style=\"font-size: 16px;\">carbon dioxide removal (CDR)<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><p>Here\u2019s the problem, simplified:<\/p><blockquote><p>To stop climate change, we have to stop emitting GHGs (this is called\u00a0<strong>mitigation<\/strong>). But some sectors, like aviation, cement production, maritime shipping, are incredibly \u201chard-to-abate.\u201d Even with massive investment, they will likely have some \u201cresidual emissions\u201d for decades. The question is: What do we do about those leftovers?<\/p><\/blockquote><p>This is where the fight starts.<\/p><p>On one side, you have the tech-pragmatists. They argue that we\u00a0<em>must<\/em>\u00a0invest heavily in technologies that can suck carbon out of the air, like Direct Air Capture (DAC) or Bioenergy with Carbon Capture (BECCS). They believe the SBTi rules should\u00a0<em>require<\/em>\u00a0companies to set targets for CDR, creating the market demand needed to scale these infant technologies before 2050, when we\u2019ll desperately need them.<\/p><p>On the other side, you have a large contingent of climate scientists and civil society groups. They warn this is a catastrophically dangerous distraction. They point to the \u201cmitigation hierarchy,\u201d a core principle of climate science:\u00a0<strong>reduce what you can, then remove what you absolutely cannot.<\/strong><\/p><p>Their fear is that allowing companies to invest in unproven, expensive, and energy-intensive removal tech gives them a \u201clicense to continue polluting.\u201d The track record for carbon capture is famously terrible, nearly 90% of proposed projects in the power sector have failed. Why, the critics ask, would we build our entire climate strategy around a technology that barely works, rather than forcing the one thing we\u00a0<em>know<\/em>\u00a0works, using less fossil fuel?<\/p><p>This is the debate everyone is watching. But it\u2019s masking a much deeper, more structural problem.<\/p><h2>The Real Flaw No One Is Talking About<\/h2><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA\"><div id=\"\u00a7the-real-flaw-no-one-is-talking-about\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Let\u2019s get a little wonky. The real problem isn\u2019t just if we should use CDR, but who is being asked to pay for it.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><p>The current draft of the rules proposes that companies must set targets to remove their \u201cresidual emissions.\u201d But, and this is the multi-trillion dollar caveat, they only have to do this for their\u00a0<strong>Scope 1<\/strong>\u00a0emissions (the pollution from their own direct operations, like a factory furnace or a vehicle fleet).<\/p><p>This sounds logical, but it\u2019s completely backward.<\/p><p>Think about the world\u2019s biggest companies. By 2050, firms like Microsoft, Google, or JPMorgan Chase will have almost zero Scope 1 emissions. They will have electrified their buildings and their vehicles. Their entire, massive carbon footprint will sit in\u00a0<strong>Scope 3<\/strong>: their supply chains, their investments, and the energy their products use.<\/p><p>So, who will have massive leftover Scope 1 emissions? Heavy industries. Cement manufacturers. Airlines. Utilities. Companies, in other words, that often have razor-thin profit margins and low purchasing power (relative to their emissions).<\/p><p>This is the perverse consequence:\u00a0<strong>The SBTi rules are structurally set up to fail.<\/strong><\/p><p>They are asking the companies with the least financial capacity to single-handedly build the entire, speculative, multi-trillion-dollar carbon removal industry.<\/p><p>Meanwhile, the companies with the most capital and purchasing power (Big Tech, Finance) will have no mandatory requirement to invest in removals at all, because their (massive) residual emissions are all in Scope 3.<\/p><p>This is a structural market failure written directly into the rulebook. Without a demand signal from the actors who can actually pay, the CDR market will never scale.<\/p><h2>So What Happens Now?<\/h2><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA\"><div id=\"\u00a7so-what-happens-now\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">This hidden flaw has massive implications for how this all plays out.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><p>First, it means that for sophisticated companies, SBTi is a competitive moat. The serious players (like Microsoft, Google, and the Frontier buyers group, who are already buying CDR) know the current rules are inadequate. They are building their own strategies that go beyond the standard, using their Scope 3 purchasing power to pressure their entire global supply chains. They aren\u2019t waiting for the rules to catch up.<\/p><p>Second, this explains the geographical explosion. The fastest SBTi growth is in Asia (China saw 228% growth recently). This isn\u2019t just a sudden wave of altruism. It\u2019s a direct result of Western companies with Scope 3 targets telling their Asian suppliers, \u201cGet your emissions in order and get SBTi-certified, or we will find a new supplier.\u201d This is where the real, gritty work of decarbonisation is happening, not in a press release, but in a procurement contract.<\/p><p>Finally, it puts sustainability professionals in a bind. The framework is flawed, but it\u2019s the only one we\u2019ve got. The smartest approach seems to be using SBTi as a floor, not a ceiling, a credible way to communicate commitment while simultaneously doing the harder, voluntary work that the science actually demands.<\/p><div class=\"subscribe-widget is-signed-up is-fully-subscribed\" data-component-name=\"SubscribeWidget\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-reset button-wrapper\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-justifyContent-center pc-reset\">\u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><h2>A Tool, Not a Target<\/h2><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent\"><div class=\"pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA\"><div id=\"\u00a7a-tool-not-a-target\" class=\"pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The SBTi has achieved something remarkable. It\u2019s channelled the chaotic energy of corporate climate pledges into a single, powerful current.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><p>However, the upcoming 2026 standard will be a battleground. Will it fix the structural Scope 3 loophole and ensure the companies with the most resources are required to contribute? Or will it bow to pressure, avoid the hard questions, and legitimise a flawed system?<\/p><p>The climate crisis won\u2019t be solved by targets alone. They are just tools. The real question is whether we\u2019re using them to build a resilient, decarbonised economy, or just a very pretty, very flammable fa\u00e7ade.<\/p><p>I\u2019d love to hear your thoughts. Do you see this as a pragmatic, necessary step, or a dangerous distraction? What do you make of the Scope 3 loophole?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over 10,000 companies have signed up for Science-Based Targets, marking a huge win for climate action. But a deep-seated flaw in the rules could be setting the entire system up to fail If you follow the world of corporate climate action, you\u2019ve heard of the\u00a0Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). In just a few years, it\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAow0pS_DA:productID":"","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,75,31,77,28,26,81,79],"tags":[116,118,115,117,114],"class_list":["post-2482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-climate-change","category-ecenomics","category-global-warming","category-government","category-performance","category-sustainable-development","category-transitional-justice","tag-cnzs","tag-consultation","tag-corporate-net-zero-standard","tag-ghg-emissions-sbti-cnzs-v2","tag-sbti","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Hidden Flaw in the World\u2019s Biggest Corporate Climate Plan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Over 10,000 companies have signed up for Science-Based Targets, marking a huge win for climate action. But a deep-seated flaw in the rules could be setting the entire system up to failIf you follow the world of corporate climate action, you\u2019ve heard of the\u00a0Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). 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