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Friday, 2 October 2026 · LondonENع
Rayan Azhari.Sustainability · Energy · Carbon · Built EnvironmentOccasional detours into philosophy, religion or programming, wherever curiosity leads
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Adjusted vs Unadjusted Close: The Dividend Double-Count That Fakes a Backtest Edge

Total-return and price-return series look identical on a chart and differ by percent-per-year underneath. Mix them, or fold dividends in twice, and a long-horizon backtest drifts a few percent above the honest one every year and compounds into a phantom edge. Here is the reconstruction check I now run: rebuild total return from price plus the dividend stream yourself and diff it against the vendor's adjusted series.

By Rayan Azhari · 9 min read · Essays
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Article 15: What Is a Building? How the UK Counts Its Stock

A series mining the PhD thesis on London and UK office buildings (Azhari, 2025). Key takeaway. There is no single answer to what is a building in UK data: four agencies keep four definitions, and stock-level energy work has to build a synthesis, the Self-Contained Unit.

· 14 min

Diesel at 175: What Syria's Fuel Price Rise Shows, and What It Does Not

On 13 September 2026 diesel in Syria went from 125 to 175 new pounds a litre, and by Sunday afternoon roads were closed in four governorates. This piece sets out what the record establishes about that price and what it does not: a pricing committee with a list of factors and no formula, a world price the ministry cited but did not show, a stated need of 300,000 barrels a day of which a fifth is itemised, two import shares from one ministry on one day, and a population with nothing between it and the price. Five charts, every figure with its publisher, unit and date.

Sharpe Ratio Limitations: Why I Promote on Calmar, Not Sharpe

A candidate in my Titan system posted a Sharpe near 1.4, cleared every statistical gate, and still traced a drawdown so deep and so long that I could never have held it through the trough. Here is why Sharpe is blind to the path and the tail, the survival-metric suite (Sortino, Calmar, CVaR, CDaR) that sees what it misses, and the one rule it bought me: promote on Calmar lift, not Sharpe lift. All figures are illustrative and sanitised.

· 9 min

Risk of Ruin Monte Carlo: Resample the Cause, Not the Effect

Most risk-of-ruin Monte Carlo resamples a strategy's realised P&L, which quietly bakes in the good luck you are trying to stress and understates the tail. Here is the correction that made my honest drawdown distribution far fatter than my first one, plus the relative gate a long-only sleeve actually needs. First person, British English, illustrative numbers only.

· 9 min

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